The failure to deal with the cost of living issue will cost the PM dearly

Political polls come and go and the only poll that really matters is the one held on election day, according to well-used political cliches.

However, there is a cliché that is used as well and that is when referring to polls, ‘the trend is your friend’.

Based on this, the trend right now is clearly not the Prime Minister’s friend.  While a percentage point change here or there is well within the margin of error, there is a slow move away from the Government.

And to make it worse, it’s right at the time that a government doesn’t want it, with a federal election within six months. It is going to take something big to turn around the trend.

But what has caused this trend against the government?  Quite clearly, the cost of living.  Every poll has the cost of living as the number one issue by a country mile.  Australians are feeling the pinch like never before.  Cost of living now rates around four times more important than the next issue, health and hospitals.

Over my 25 years in politics and public affairs, I have never seen such a degree of concern about a single issue ever before in any public or internal polling.

But we all know this.  Whether it’s interest rates, inflation, rents, fuel, groceries or health costs, it’s costing everyone more.  The problem is, the public is now becoming aware that the PM and his government have no idea how to fix it, or more importantly, they don’t seem to see it as a priority.

As the Federal Director for The Nationals at the last Federal election, our research showed that while cost of living was the number one issue, the difference wasn’t as marked as now. But that said, at that time the current PM and Labor had a clear advantage in who the public saw to best deal with the issue, compared to the Coalition.  This is one of the main reasons for the election win in 2022.

Labor were better able to empathise with the public’s increasing concern about the issue and explain their plan better – and how the public will benefit.

But now, they don’t have that advantage.  Polling now shows that when the public is asked who is best to tackle the cost of living, it is neck and neck:  a big advantage Labor had at the last election has now evaporated.

What is worse though is that the values on which this concern about cost of living that Labor is trying to claim is undermined by their own actions and language.

There is no clear and coherent messaging explaining exactly what the government is doing to allay the public’s real concerns about cost of living and there is no day-to-day message consistency either.  When was the last time either the Treasurer or PM spoke only about cost of living for more than 2 days in a row?

Further, the government seems far more occupied with issues that the public see as less important that tackling the cost of living:  social welfare, foreign affairs, promoting the re-introduction of unionism, which questions are in the census, the Makarrata and the over-the-top promotion of renewables.

While to some people these issues are important, they are not, for the overwhelmingly majority of Australians – the most important issue.

And it’s this failure by the PM and his government that is seeing their support slide.  They are drifting, with no clear plan to address the biggest concern for the majority of Australians.